Chapter Summaries

Chapter 1: Shishmaref, Alaska

Kolbert opens the first chapter of her book by confronting the reader with the harsh reality global warming. The Alaskan town of Shishmaref had to be relocated on account of its increasing vulnerability to storm surges. The phenomenon of climate change might come as a shock to many people today, yet researchers have been investigating it for a long time. Organizations like the National Academy of Sciences, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and the Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate, also known as the Charney Panel, have long confirmed the seriousness of this global trend. In effect, if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere increase, the earth is thrown off its energy balance and as a means to restore this balance, it is forced to heat up, as Kolbert explains. The warming signs, present for several decades already, are becoming ever more prominent, including the shrinking of glaciers, the severity of forest fires, permafrost melting, the warming and increasing acidity of the oceans, the growing similarity between daytime and nighttime temperatures, the Northward shifting of animal ranges, and the melting of the Arctic. The melting of large sheets of ice is of special concern to many scientists, because snow-covered ice is a very efficient reflector of sunlight and thus helps to cool the planet. An albedo between 0.8 and 0.9, allows it to reflect light almost completely, as opposed to the world oceans, which have an albedo of 0.07, meaning that they absorb almost all light. By melting the world’s ice caps we are exchanging the world’s best reflector for the worst, initiating a mechanism of positive feedback. This roughly means that “once the climate starts rolling, it won’t stop”, as Kolbert puts it. It should not come as a surprise therefore, that climate models predict sea ice in the Arctic to disappear by 2080 and that stories like the one of Shishmaref are likely to repeat themselves in future.

Chapter 2: A Warmer Sky

In chapter two, Kolbert examines the work of three prominent scientists, who have raised the issue of global warming long before it has reached the world press. During the 1850s, John Tyndall, an Irish physicist, constructed the first spectrophotometer. With the help of this instrument, he was able to determine that several selectively transparent gases are mainly responsible for the climate of the planet, namely nitrogen, oxygen, carbon dioxide, and water vapor. These four gases appear transparent in the visible part of the light spectrum, meaning that they transmit radiation from the sun, but block radiation from the earth, because it is emitted in infrared. The planet radiates 235 watts per square meter, meaning that greenhouse gases such as the ones above can have a great effect on the global climate. Tyndall was one of the first to observe this effect, which can today be explained by referring to the Stefan-Boltzmann law, which states that radiation emitted by an object is proportional to its absolute temperature raised to the fourth power. Evidently, with gases present that impede the transfer of heat between space and the earth, the earth is not in equilibrium and the increase in global temperatures result from this unbalanced distribution of heat. Later during the 19th century, Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, was able to add to Tyndall’s discoveries the established observation of the correlation between industrialization and warming. Unlike many scientists today, however, Arrhenius was not very concerned, even though his calculations, which led him to conclude that if carbon dioxide levels were doubled, global temperatures were to rise by 11 degrees Fahrenheit, yielded similar results to those calculated by modern scientists today. Modern climate change science, it could be argued, began with the observations of American chemist Charles David Keeling, who, in his observatory at Mauna Loa on Hawaii, composed what is commonly known as the Keeling Curve, This graph of the shape of a saw, indicated a steady annual rise in global temperatures. Each year, there are slight decreases in carbon dioxide levels; however, this is because there are more trees in the Northern hemisphere than in the Southern hemisphere, which absorb more carbon dioxide during the summer. Keeling’s, work, as well as the works of Tyndall and Arrhenius, goes to show that there is clear evidence of the rise of global temperatures. Scientists evidently have been researching the causes of this phenomenon for many years and their combined works leave no doubt that global climate destabilization is real.

Chapter 3: Under the Glacier

Chapter three addresses the problem of melting ice, previously touched upon in chapter one. The records have repeatedly confirmed that global temperatures are rising at alarming and unprecedented, causing, many glaciers and ice sheets to melt and finally attracting the attention of the major Arctic nations. Ice records are read by analyzing tiny bubbles of air within them, which contain samples of past atmospheres. The isotopic composition of the ice also allows scientists to deduce the temperature at the time at which the ice solidified. Ice records are about to become a scarce commodity, however, as the ice caps and glaciers are diminishing. Greenland ice alone is predicted to raise sea levels by 23 feet. The rate at which Greenland ice sheets melt could be accelerated still further, as surface melt water drills small tunnels, called moulins, into the ice and sifts to the bedrock. There it acts as a lubricant, causing the ice sheet to flow faster, thinning faster, and encouraging further melting. This way, the Greenland ice sheets can be set in rapid motion in a matter of decades. Melting is also encouraged by what is commonly referred to as the “conveyor belt”. This term refers to the ocean currents, which bring warmer tropical waters to the North, where it becomes ever colder and denser and eventually sinks to the ocean floor near Greenland, to return to warmer regions. Kolbert refers to this cycle as the “energy engine of world climate”. By heating the oceans and adding freshwater, this engine can be affected, further encouraging the melting of Greenland ice. The phenomenon has come to the attention of the major Arctic powers, the United States, Russia, Canada, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Iceland. Jointly, they commissioned a three-part two-million dollar study on climate change in the region, the first two parts of which were presented at a symposium at Reykjavík. The third part, a policy document on the response to the findings, was not yet complete, partially because U.S. negotiators were dissatisfied with much of the language used to formulate upcoming steps to counter climate change.

Chapter 4: The Butterfly and the Toad

“The Butterfly and the Toad” is primarily concerned with the effect that global climate destabilization has on natural habitats and on the lives of many species around the globe. Darwin already proposed the idea of the vast migration of species due to the advance and retreat of glaciers in his On the Origin of Species, but the extent to which this could be true is only becoming truly alarming during our time. Vast biological changes, attributed to climate change include the migration to higher latitudes and altitudes, in response to changes in temperature, moisture, and seasonality, as well as the alteration and shift in time of routines, such as hibernation of the laying of eggs. These adjustments can in some cases be attributed to the innate flexibility of a species to adapt to its environment, they could, however, also indicate a rearrangement of its genetic code. This would mean that global warming is beginning to drive evolution. It has already driven multiple species to extinction. Most species alive have already survived some form of climate change within the last two million years, but the current rate of warming may exceed any previous temperature swings. Current projections predict the extinction of 15 percent of all mobile species by the middle of the century and 37 percent of those stationary. Extinction can also, to some extent be directly attributed to globalization and international trade, as the transportation of exotic pests and competitors is facilitated. These human activities, however, may also affect crop species and bring diseases to humans.

Chapter 5: The Curse of Akkad

By providing the example of the collapse of the Akkadian Empire, Kolbert illustrates the fate of countless other civilizations and makes it clear that climate change has, in the past, had a severe impact on human life. The demise of the Akkadian Empire had been attributed to a long and bitter drought and the classic Mayan civilization fell due to shifting precipitation patterns. Likewise, the Tiwanaku civilization, and the Old Kingdom of Egypt fell victims to climate change. Today, Kolbert notes, we can identify the causes of the collapse of these cultures and we can apply this knowledge to our current situation. Unlike these ancient civilizations, we possess the technology to prepare in advance. Climate models by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies have traced the carbon dioxide concentration in the air from pre-industrial times to today from 280 parts per million to 378 parts per million and the methane from 0.78 parts per million to 1.76 parts per million. Models for climate forecasts, by taking into account the fundamental physical principles and basic forcing, factors that drive the climate system, such as volcanic eruptions, periodic shifts in the earth’s orbit, changes in sun output, or the addition of greenhouse gases, allow scientists to make precise predictions about the conditions on earth in the future. Some forcings, greenhouse gases, for example, are difficult to integrate. Man-made aerosols, for example, which result from the combustion of coal, oil, and biomass, reflect sunlight and can counter the greenhouse effect, but only as long as they are suspended in the air in the form of small droplets.

Chapter 6: Floating Houses

This chapter is dedicated to the rise in sea levels, caused mainly by the melting of major ice sheets. Flooding can be attributed simply to the thermal expansion of water. As water becomes warm it expands, but due to thermal inertia, a stabilization of greenhouse gases would not immediately stop the expansion of water. Changing precipitation patterns can also cause flooding and so can the impeding flow of rivers to the ocean. The melting of the West Antarctic and of the Greenland ice sheets, however, could raise sea levels by 35 feet. For this reason, government and privately-sponsored projects in the Netherlands have begun to prepare the local population. Dura Vermeer, for example, has completed the construction of its first amphibious homes in the fall of 2004. These homes may become very useful in the future. Even today, scientists measure unprecedented carbon dioxide concentrations in the air. The Vostok ice core, gathered in Antarctica between 1990 and 1998, a 11’775 foot long ice core, suggests that the planet is warmer than at any point during the last 420’000 years and at 378 parts per million, holds the highest carbon dioxide levels witnessed in geological history. The levels of dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI), however, are still being debated, suggestions ranging from 400 parts per million to 500 parts per million.

Chapter 7: Business as Usual

Having addressed the major effects of global climate destabilization, the question is now, how to confront it. Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacala propose a set of 15 stabilization wedges, each of which should prevent one billion metric tons of carbon dioxide from being emitted by 2054. Out of these fifteen, however, an entire twelve are needed to simply maintain the current trajectory of increase. As this suggests, the rate of emissions growth is expected to increase. With growth in both economy and population density, more emissions will be required to maintain the pace of development, especially in the Third World. This demands the constant addition of infrastructure. Some Socolow’s and Pacala’s wedges therefore include the installation of photovoltaic cells (five million acres of cover would be required) or the harnessing of wind energy. Both technologies would, once installed be relatively safe and completely emissions-free. Nuclear power would be another option, but there remains the unsolved problem of nuclear waste. Heating and light reductions would also be necessary. Socolow and Pacala also propose that automobiles should be driven half as much as they are currently driven and that cars should be double in efficiency. A further wedge is the method of carbon capture and storage, which involves the injection of captured carbon at high pressure into underground geological formations such as depleted oil fields. It is, however, uncertain, whether the stored carbon can be contained within the storage area. Trading in carbon credits and imposing a tax of about $100 per ton of carbon dioxide emissions would be further options. Marty Hoffert, physics professor at New York University, on the other hand, advocates the installation of space-based solar power (SSP), for which satellites, equipped with large photovoltaic arrays should orbit the planet, capturing eight times more sunlight per unit area than on earth. The problem, however, remains the transmission of captured energy to earth, which, according to Hoffert, could be done via microwaves, but remains a problematic question. It is clear that adapting to the challenges posed by global climate destabilization is difficult, but it is, as Socolow affirms, definitely possible.
Chapter 8: The Day After Kyoto

The United States of America produces roughly 25 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases, yet today it is frustratingly inactive in tackling this figure, to the great frustration of the international community. At the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, the United States had still been a relatively active delegation and had contributed to the endorsement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the goal of which was to stabilize greenhouse gas levels at the 1990 levels. Different nations, however, had different obligations in this framework: While Annex 1 countries, the industrialized nations, were committed to reduce their emissions; all other nations were merely responsible for mitigating theirs. When the former President Bush presented the convention to the senate three months later, it was unanimously approved. Several Conferences of the Parties followed the Rio conference, the most publicized of which was the one in Kyoto in December of 1997. The Kyoto Protocol, produced there obliged the European Union to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by eight percent, the United States by seven percent, and Japan by six percent. Preceding this protocol, however, was the Byrd-Hagel Resolution by the U.S. Senate, calling on the government to reject any agreements, committing it to emissions reductions unless the same obligations extended to developing nations. This resolution was the product of tireless lobbying campaigns, costing roughly $13 million, by corporations like Chevron, Chrysler, ExxonMobil, Ford, General Motors, Shell, and Texaco. The Bush administration bowed to the pressure exerted by these companies and withdrew the United States from the Kyoto negotiations under George W. Bush. Instead of focusing on greenhouse gas emissions, the administration would now focus on greenhouse gas intensity, a ration of emissions to economic output, and propose only voluntary measures on how to reduce emissions. The administration has also repeatedly emphasized the uncertainties of climate change science and has attempted to edit reports of the Environmental Protection Agency, which stated the contrary. Meanwhile, the anti-Kyoto lobby has also found supporters within the Senate, such as Senator Inhofe, a Republican from Oklahoma, who has repeatedly criticized the accuracy of the science behind the protocol. In Congress, on the other hand, the lobby could rely on Frank Luntz, an advisor to Republican members of Congress on environmental issues, who is known to have urged politicians to question climate change science, so to make voters believe that there existed no scientific consensus on the matter. To further spread the notion of disagreement in the scientific community, the lobby circulated skeptic propaganda through organizations such as Americans for Balanced Energy Choices or the Greening Earth Society. That there exists a strong consensus among scientists, however, was clearly demonstrated by Naomi Oreskes’ study of articles on climate change by refereed journals, which concluded that out of 900 articles, none denied anthropogenic warming.

Chapter 9: Burlington, Vermont

Awareness of the effects of climate change and of possible means to confront them has encouraged some to seek solutions to the problem, as seen in chapter seven, and others to oppose such measures, as seen in chapter eight. Mayor Peter Clavelle of Burlington, Vermont, remains hopeful however, introducing the “10 Percent Challenge” to his city to urge its citizens to save energy. The campaign consists of recycling and composting among other measures. Other mayors across the United States have also taken the initiative to counter climate change on their own, by circulating the “U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement” in February of 2005- Within four months, 170 mayors, dedicated to achieving the goals of the Kyoto Protocol, had signed. This enthusiasm, however, is overshadowed by developments in the Third World, which is not restricted by the Kyoto Protocol. China, for example, intends on doubling the size of its economy within the next 15 years. Plans exist to build 150 new 1000 megawatt coal plants by 2010 and another 168 by 2020. Factories in China rely on highly inefficient motors and old energy transmission systems, which overtake all efforts by U.S. mayors to conserve energy and to protect the environment. To effectively tackle climate change, the governments of both the United States and China would need to cooperate and China would need to engage in coal gasification, a process to sequester carbon dioxide emissions from its power plants. That either of these will occur in the near future, however, remains doubtful.

Chapter 10: Man in the Anthropocene

This chapter addresses the dangers of a less commonly known greenhouse gas, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). These “odorless, colorless, nonreactive” gases were first used as refrigerants in the 1930s. In the 1940s, they were used in Styrofoam and it was only in the 1970s, that researchers discovered their destructive effects on the ozone layer. Research chemists examined its effects on the upper atmosphere and discovered that, while relatively stable at low levels, CFCs are very unstable in the stratosphere, breaking down ozone into oxygen. In the 1980s, a large hole was eventually discovered over Antarctica. The problem was addressed by the Montreal Protocol of 1987, which marked the beginning of the process to “phase out” CFCs.

Afterword

In this section of her book, Kolbert voices her distaste for the handling of the situation by the Bush Administration, which “continues to suppress what it doesn’t care to hear”, despite the obvious effects that global climate destabilization if having directly on the United States. To illustrate her frustration, Kolbert refers to the hurricanes, which have left widespread destruction and despair in America over the last couple of years. In 2005 alone, there were 27 named storms, fifteen of them being full-scale hurricanes. Of these, three were category five hurricanes. It must be said that usually, four such hurricanes are experienced within a decade, but 2005 witnessed three within a single season. While acknowledging that there exists a certain degree of uncertainty about the connection between hurricane intensity and global warming, Kolbert does make it clear that a correlation is inevitably observed and that warmer sea temperatures do make hurricane formation more likely. Apart from hurricanes, however, she also points to the melting of the Arctic ice cap, the increase in ocean acidity, which endangers the lives of many marine species, and the rise on carbon dioxide concentrations. She also refers to the melting of glaciers and of Antarctic ice sheets to emphasize the necessity to act against the perils of climate change.